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Wednesday March 11, 2009 at 8:10 am
Winter Is Not Going Out Without A Fight


NOON Thursday Update... I'm getting some big snowflakes here in west Little Rock.  Too warm to stick of course.  I don't expect any travel problems in central Arkansas except wet roads.

10 AM Thursday Update... Thanks to everyone for the reports.  Remember, we need pictures.  You can send them to photo@katv.com

I just drove around west Little Rock and there is glazing of ice in the trees, but the roads are just wet.  I talked to a friend of mine in Paragould and he has snow falling.  Jonesboro also has snow.  It's interesting to note air temperatures are around 33 to 34 degrees and ice is still in the trees.  This is more than likely due to the warm ground from the mild weather lately.  Just a few more feet off the ground to tree height, ice is forming.  Please keep the comments coming!

Here's a picture from Kevin Morris in Jonesboro...

7 AM Thursday Update...  We have 33 and rain.  This will turn out to be more of a freezing rain and sleet event for parts of central Arkansas with snow further north.  If temperatures hold around 31 to 32, I would only expect some icing on exposed objects.  The models are off with readings right now.  The GFS says it should be 37 and the NAM says it should be 38 while Little Rock sits at 33 and North Little Rock at 32.

PLEASE SEND US YOUR WEATHER REPORTS IN THE COMMENT SECTION BELOW.  WE NEED YOUR LOCATION, TYPE OF PRECIPITATION, AND TEMPERATURE.

ALSO, PLEASE SEND PICTURES TO PHOTO@KATV.COM OR UPLOAD THEM ON THE "YOU NEWS TV" SECTION OF OUR WEBSITE.

2 PM Update... As Ninja pointed out in the comment section, the GFS isn't showing much at all now.  The NAM has a bullseye over the area outlined below with the hilly areas of far northern areas receiving 4-6 inches.

Noon Update... Everything is coming more into agreement that northern Arkansas has the best chance for seeing wintry weather. Right now, I would put that southern edge from Waldron to Russellville to Heber Springs to Jonesboro.  It's possible for areas north of that line to receive accumulating snow and ice on grass and exposed objects.  If the storm track changes, the area affected will change as well.  The GFS is now indicating a high of 38 Thursday and the NAM is 36.

9:15 AM Wednesday Update... The new NAM is filtering in and a prelim. look indicates significant precipitation over much of the state with a strong wave Thursday.  The freezing line at 850 mb is running across most of the northern half of the state, but just north of Little Rock.  The NAM temp. forecast won't be out for another 45 minutes or so.  It will be interesting to see if it keeps getting colder here at the surface.   Watch the temperature today.  It isn't moving much at all.  Here in west Little Rock, I'm holding at 38 degrees. 

This will more than likely be winters last gasp.  Here are the top 5 snowiest days in March for Little Rock.  I'm not saying we will get snow or even close to these amounts, but it sure is interesting to look at.  It also shows you how anything can happen in March!

1. March 17, 1892   8 inches

2. March 8, 1942   6 inches

3.  March 2, 1971   5.2 inches

4.  March 13, 1924   4.6 inches

5.  March 10, 1984  4.5 inches

Sorry I haven't updated like I normally do.  I'm working on my kitchen.  So much fun... pulling off wallpaper isn't, but I got it!

Last Sunday we hit 84 degrees.  The NAM is now forecasting a high Thursday in Little Rock of 36.  So within one week, we will have almost a 50 degree range with our high temperature. 

Remember what I posted several days ago.  The GFS would suppress the moisture and its forecast temperatures would be too warm.  Now the precip is expected to expand much further north and highs will be almost 10-12 degrees colder than what was advertised.

A winter storm watch is in effect for areas just north and east of Little Rock Thursday.  There is a concern for ice since the 850 mb temperatures may just be a few degrees above freezing so a thin layer of warm air aloft could bring sleet or freezing rain to those areas just north of Little Rock.  Further north it would be cold enough to support snow. 

Remember the models continue to trend colder and colder with each run.  This area of frozen precip. could easily reach further south.  I just noticed the GFS is now indicating Little Rock receiving between 1-2 inches.  From Waldron to Jonesboro, it indicates 2-3 inches of snow with embedded areas to 4 inches.

The NAM is similar with its amounts, but further south with accumulations.  It shows Little Rock receiving 2-4 inches.  Remember, these are just models.  If anything were to accumulate, it would be on grass and elevated objects.  My gosh, it wasn't too far from 90 degrees a few days ago!

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Comments on Winter Is Not Going Out Without A Fight
Devin Flemens
WeatherFanatic yeah its green here im ready to what it looks like next week when we see 70s

WeatherFanatic
Devin, I'm glad that you brought some of that rain to Little Rock because it was looking like we'd miss out on it.. About .30 of an inch here in WLR and about an inch earlier in the week. Everything has exploded green. I'm sure it's even greener your way...

Devin Flemens
Hey Todd how do you think this storm would have been if it would have came in december or january?

Devin Flemens
Hey Todd its 32 here with rain just to the sw but looks like most of it is going to miss the state. we have already picked up on 2.8 inches here at umpire.

Derek Bohanan
Could you guys please bring back the ability to put weather maps in motion. That feature is the most informative when trying to get a feel for any approaching weather. Thanks

Dave
It's still above freezing here in Little Rock. I never saw any snowflakes this morning or afternoon. Surely it's not over yet or is it?

weather bob
We have lots of ice on the trees and powers lines here in Possum Grape, AR. We did get a dusting of snow, too. Temp is 33 now with a light mist.

The WeatherNinja
We have ice in the trees in Maumelle. We just had sleet for about 15 minutes but have not seen any snowflakes yet.

MAE
I have a question. Someone please help with this answer. I am having a bible study at my house in Little Rock this evening. Do you all think the temps will fall below freezing before 10:00 pm? I also do hope for some snow and wintery weather overnight.

Bobby Powers
No freezing rain in Benton or central Little Rock. Just cold rain. The trees have no ice on them. I keep reading these reports of ice on the trees. That is pretty cool to see how this strom if very patchy with freezing temps on elevated surfaces. It does appear the trees are galzing over on the hill top just north of my office building. Looks like NE Arkansas gets another big snow event. Can't wait to see the snow totals for that area. It looks like the snow is coming down at a pretty good clip. Sorry snow lovers NO SNOW IN LITTLE ROCK..!!!!

Allie
Sleet/Freezing Rain this morning in Clinton. Ice is on the trees. Roads were fine this morning, but I wonder how they'll be tomorrow morning if this continues today and temps. drop overnight.

Taylor
Looking over the trees at Shackleford Crossing Shopping center, it looks like there is ice on the trees and a car left over night has a glaze of ice on it.

Caleb
Hey Todd,I was just outside to see whats going on and its sleeting/snowing

Devin Flemens
Hey Todd its 32 with rain here at umpire in sw ark i havent seen any ice yet must be from the warm temps we have had.so whats the chance of us geting any winter weather?

Nick Lamb
right now in bryant its 39.4 degrees with unknown precip!

tyler tipton
to continue bo's question, if it gets to 32, and there is sleet how much would accumulate?

The WeatherNinja
I noticed our dew points in central Ark have fallen even though temps have gone up a few degrees. Interesting to see the NW as warm as they are at 8:00 PM. It appears it's going to be a mostly rain/sleet mix for us in LR. I find it interesting that NWS Little Rock is only calling for an inch or so of snow up north and about a 30% chance but most of the models show more than that and the HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center has northern AR painted with Heavy Snow.

If this was a month or two ago...the stores would be out of bread and milk....

bo turney
If it gets to 32 in Little Rock tonight, what will the percip be? if it does that what could the accumulations look like?

WeatherFanatic
The low that will move over us later tonight and tomorrow looks very healthy. It covers the entire northern half of Texas and may strengthen as it moves NE.

I'm going to stick my neck out and say that someone in the NNE part of the state may see a freakish snow event like we saw in NE Arkansas a few weeks ago.

I'll be curious to see the temperature profiles at all levels. Will it be cold enough to support all snow is the million dollar question and how far south will it be?

Jamie May
It would really be nice to have a whole day of snow tomorrow. Unfortunately Pine Bluff probably won't see any at all. Still hopeful though. I hope Ninja doesn't have to eat crow cause I would truly like to see a snow event.

Devin Flemens
Hey Todd we still at 36 at 1:45 with rain if we drop below 32 will it be ice or snow???

The WeatherNinja
Boy...how things change. The GFS & NAM Snowfall amounts for central Arkansas are gone and everything is shifted north. It is changing by the hour and those who follow storm paths know all it takes is 50-100 miles north or south to make or break. Look what happened week before last. No one saw the upper low track that far sw until it happened.

I may have to eat crow again......please pass the salt!!!!!

bo turney
I havent seen anything this morning in Little Rock, do you think that central Arkansas will see anything at all? i hope we do!

Kenneth Martin
Hey Todd, There was a brief snow about 12:45 p.m. It was some big wet snow flakes mixing in with rain here in Prescott, Ar in nevada County the current temp is 40 degrees.

Jamie May
Every so often a little snow mixes in with the rain here in Arkadelphia; is that a sign of things to come

Jamie May
What are the chances a snow event could take place south of little rock say from a line from Arkadelphia through Pine Bluff

Erin Russo
We've had a mix of rain and sleet here this morning between 9:30 and 10:30 AM. It's tapered off now. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets a little more intense tonight. Unbelievable how cold it got!

Bobby Powers
My daughter called and told me it's sleeting in Russellville! This weather event is not passing the smell test! Snow, freezing rain, sleet, cold rain!!!! What will we get in Central Arkansas...??? Who knows! We will know Friday morning how bad it got, but know one will hit the right forcast the next 24 hours! Remember I said last week that somewhere in Arkansas was going to see more snow before spring really gets here!

Lanette
We are getting a little bit of sleet in Conway.

Allie
It was sleeting pretty hard in the Clinton area this morning.

WeatherFanatic
What a turnaround! When I woke up this morning, I was expecting my weatherstation to be in the mid 40's! "Not so fast" as crazy Lee Corso says from college football gameday when we picks the underdog! Winter has been the underdog all week, which is fair to say since we were in the mid 80's 4 days ago! Unbelievable. I'm making no predictions, I'll just let mother nature do her thing, I just hope we don't get a lot of freezing rain..

The WeatherNinja
I agree Todd. The models are trending colder. I was looking at the MOS and the NAM had LR in the low 30s tomorrow afternoon. I believe the cold air will be pushed a little further south and LR will get in on the action. It should be fun!!!

I love this state!!!

Devin Flemens
Hey Todd we are down to 36 here in umpire in sw ark and it was only going to get to 41 it is looking like some winter weather for the state keep us updated on this.

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