10 AM Thursday Update... Thanks to everyone for the reports. Remember, we need pictures. You can send them to photo@katv.com
I just drove around west Little Rock and there is glazing of ice in the trees, but the roads are just wet. I talked to a friend of mine in Paragould and he has snow falling. Jonesboro also has snow. It's interesting to note air temperatures are around 33 to 34 degrees and ice is still in the trees. This is more than likely due to the warm ground from the mild weather lately. Just a few more feet off the ground to tree height, ice is forming. Please keep the comments coming!
Here's a picture from Kevin Morris in Jonesboro...

7 AM Thursday Update... We have 33 and rain. This will turn out to be more of a freezing rain and sleet event for parts of central Arkansas with snow further north. If temperatures hold around 31 to 32, I would only expect some icing on exposed objects. The models are off with readings right now. The GFS says it should be 37 and the NAM says it should be 38 while Little Rock sits at 33 and North Little Rock at 32.
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2 PM Update... As Ninja pointed out in the comment section, the GFS isn't showing much at all now. The NAM has a bullseye over the area outlined below with the hilly areas of far northern areas receiving 4-6 inches.
Noon Update... Everything is coming more into agreement that northern Arkansas has the best chance for seeing wintry weather. Right now, I would put that southern edge from Waldron to Russellville to Heber Springs to Jonesboro. It's possible for areas north of that line to receive accumulating snow and ice on grass and exposed objects. If the storm track changes, the area affected will change as well. The GFS is now indicating a high of 38 Thursday and the NAM is 36.
9:15 AM Wednesday Update... The new NAM is filtering in and a prelim. look indicates significant precipitation over much of the state with a strong wave Thursday. The freezing line at 850 mb is running across most of the northern half of the state, but just north of Little Rock. The NAM temp. forecast won't be out for another 45 minutes or so. It will be interesting to see if it keeps getting colder here at the surface. Watch the temperature today. It isn't moving much at all. Here in west Little Rock, I'm holding at 38 degrees.
This will more than likely be winters last gasp. Here are the top 5 snowiest days in March for Little Rock. I'm not saying we will get snow or even close to these amounts, but it sure is interesting to look at. It also shows you how anything can happen in March!
1. March 17, 1892 8 inches
2. March 8, 1942 6 inches
3. March 2, 1971 5.2 inches
4. March 13, 1924 4.6 inches
5. March 10, 1984 4.5 inches
Sorry I haven't updated like I normally do. I'm working on my kitchen. So much fun... pulling off wallpaper isn't, but I got it!
Last Sunday we hit 84 degrees. The NAM is now forecasting a high Thursday in Little Rock of 36. So within one week, we will have almost a 50 degree range with our high temperature.
Remember what I posted several days ago. The GFS would suppress the moisture and its forecast temperatures would be too warm. Now the precip is expected to expand much further north and highs will be almost 10-12 degrees colder than what was advertised.
A winter storm watch is in effect for areas just north and east of Little Rock Thursday. There is a concern for ice since the 850 mb temperatures may just be a few degrees above freezing so a thin layer of warm air aloft could bring sleet or freezing rain to those areas just north of Little Rock. Further north it would be cold enough to support snow.
Remember the models continue to trend colder and colder with each run. This area of frozen precip. could easily reach further south. I just noticed the GFS is now indicating Little Rock receiving between 1-2 inches. From Waldron to Jonesboro, it indicates 2-3 inches of snow with embedded areas to 4 inches.
The NAM is similar with its amounts, but further south with accumulations. It shows Little Rock receiving 2-4 inches. Remember, these are just models. If anything were to accumulate, it would be on grass and elevated objects. My gosh, it wasn't too far from 90 degrees a few days ago!
If this was a month or two ago...the stores would be out of bread and milk....
I'm going to stick my neck out and say that someone in the NNE part of the state may see a freakish snow event like we saw in NE Arkansas a few weeks ago.
I'll be curious to see the temperature profiles at all levels. Will it be cold enough to support all snow is the million dollar question and how far south will it be?
I may have to eat crow again......please pass the salt!!!!!
I love this state!!!