3 PM Wednesday Update... The high so far is 75 degrees.  It's great out there!  The new NAM model shows interesting things Saturday morning.  There could be a few snow showers.  I can't get excited about it though.  The set up is not a typical one for winter weather in Arkansas.  Plus, with temps. today around 75 and again near 60 Friday, the ground is way too warm.

1 PM Wednesday Update... We are now within 3 degrees of a record high.  As of 1 PM it's 74.  The record is 77 set in 1986.  It's a beautiful day!

9 AM Wednesday Update... I was going to start a new thread, but questions are flooding in on this post about the upcoming weather pattern and this weekend.  First of all, I was wanting some comments on our new weather graphics.  We have the same system, but we just updated the "look".  You may notice we made the Look Ahead and 7 Day Forecast smaller and positioned further up on the screen.  We wanted to make sure none of the graphics were covered up by the ticker at the bottom of the screen.  That's the thing scrolling at the bottom during the morning and the school closing information as well.  I think these colors and backgrounds are bolder than what we had before and I personally like it!

Now onto the weather pattern.  There is so much negativity about our snow chances on this blog.  The pattern remains very active and things can happen still.  It could be so much worse.  We could have a ridge parked over us with above normal temperatures and dry weather every day for a month. 

Today will be quite warm and windy before the northern branch becomes more active and delivers a cold shot tonight and Thursday.  Look for temperatures near 70 today, then near 50 tomorrow with plenty of wind.  A very strong clipper system arrives late Friday into Saturday morning.  There may be a quick surge of warmth Friday ahead of this feature.  As a matter of fact, I would not be surprised to see a few  thunderstorms Friday night.  The air behind the front is quite cold with the GFS showing a high in Little Rock of 48 degrees Saturday.  This could be too warm.  It's true, some of the models do show snow showers for Arkansas this weekend, but I'm not optimistic about it.  I do think the best chance will be across northeastern Arkansas.  After that, the pattern remains active.  There's so much going on, the weather isn't boring for sure!  I'll keep you updated!

8 AM Monday Update...  In the comment section, there's a question asking when was the last time we had a snowless winter.  The records I looked at indicate it was the winter of 1992-93.  

A northwesterly flow aloft will set up by the end of the week with shots of cold air arriving.  This type of flow does not allow moisture to be incorporated into the pattern.  We are more than 7 degrees above normal with temperatures so far this month, but that will be lowered during the last half of the month.

I have now received several questions regarding the loud explosion the other night.  It could have been several things like a meteor.  It could have also been a sonic boom from a military aircraft.  When I lived in Chattanooga, TN, I recall getting a sonic boom once a day that would rattle the walls of my home.  It would get your attention for sure.  No one could figure out what it was, but after some digging, our newsroom found out.  Lockheed Martin was building the FA-22 Raptor at their Marietta, GA facility.  The FAA approved a super sonic corridor across the Tennessee Valley for testing.  Every time one of those military aircraft rolled off the assembly line, they tested it over Chattanooga.  I called their P.R. dept. and asked to do a story on it.  They agreed and I headed to the plant in Georgia.   We were one of the first media outlets to do a story on the aircraft since many aspects of it were top secret.   I met the chief test pilot and got an up close look at the new fighter jet.  It has the ability to go super sonic without the use of afterburners.  I just thought I would share the story with you.  Like I said, it could have been several things including a military aircraft.

9 AM Sunday Update... The chilly northwest flow is coming back.  We are now going into the time of year when our weather is the most active.  The transition from winter to spring can bring wild swings in weather and I think we may get a small taste of that this week.  First of all, I expect warm and breezy conditions to develop by the middle of the week.  Then a northwesterly wind flow will bring several shots of chilly air.  This will NOT be the type of cold air we saw in December and January.  As I look at the model numbers for the end of the week, I think they are too warm.  I think it's possible for highs across the state to only be in the 30s and 40s.  The GFS wants to bring a "clipper" like system in by the end of the week with some moisture with it, but the Euro is further east and drier.  As you know, I don't trust the GFS past 2 or 3 days.  Nevertheless, it's a pattern that can be fun to watch unfold.

Taylor had a comment below about an explosion he heard the other night.  Sorry, I have no idea what it could have been.

It's time for an update.  First of all, happy Valentine's day.  If you watched Saturday Daybreak, I made forecasts for towns that had a Valentine's day theme in the name.  If you can think of a new one, let me know.  Here's a few from this morning:

Romance, Heart, Rose Bud, Diamond City, Lacey, Fox, Tulip, Delight, Roseboro.

The long range forecast does not offer much hope for snow as temperatures stay at or above normal for the next several days.  I am watching a system for the middle of the week.  It will bring windy conditions Tuesday with a chance for rain showers.  It will draw warm air into the state Tuesday into Wednesday, then a strong front will bring colder weather, but not arctic cold.  I do think the models may be too warm at the end of the week.  Also, the jet stream shows some significant amplification down the road.  Right now, there are no specific storms, but an active weather pattern that needs to be watched.  I will keep looking for all you snow lovers out there!