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Tuesday May 12, 2009 at 9:27 am
Pattern Change and Upcoming Hurricane Season


Over the past several days, we have been under what's called a "zonal flow" aloft.  This sends disturbances from west to east across the country and directly over Arkansas.  A front at the surface has been caught up in that flow with nothing to push it north or south.  The front becomes a focus point for the most active weather as it lays across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana.  To the south of the boundary, it's unstable and severe storms erupt with each disturbance.  North of it, heavy rain is the problem.

Now, the pattern will become a bit more amplified instead of zonal.  This will push the front to the north later today and Wednesday.  The warm and unstable air will flow into the state.  It will be close to 90 Wednesday with plenty of humidity.  A storm system will organize north of the state bringing storm chances back on Thursday.  Some of the storms could become quite strong since we will be in the warm and unstable sector.

Now onto the upcoming hurricane season which is less than a month away from kicking off.  You will hear forecasts and predictions from individuals within the government and forecast companies.  These come from very talented and smart meteorologists who pour a ton of effort into their forecast.    In the end, it's mother nature who will decide what happens.  I remember hearing predictions after the active 2005 season that we were just starting a very active cycle which would last for years to come.  The two years following turned out to be extremely quiet. 

NOAA has retired two names from last season, Gustav and Ike.  Both affected Arkansas but in different ways.  Gustav brought flooding while Ike brought flooding and tornadoes.  Here's the info from NOAA.

  • Gustav became a hurricane on Aug. 26, making landfall in Haiti as a Category 1 hurricane. Gustav then struck western Cuba as a Category 4 hurricane, making its final landfall near Cocodrie, La., on Sept. 1 as a Category 2 hurricane. Hurricane force winds, storm surge and heavy rain produced more than $4 billion damage in Louisiana. Gustav killed 112 people, including 77 in Haiti.
  • Ike became a hurricane on Sept. 3 and rapidly intensified to a Category 4 hurricane northeast of the Leeward Islands. The storm struck the Turks and Caicos Islands and Great Inagua Island in the Southeastern Bahamas on Sept. 7, and the northeast coast of Cuba later that day. Ike made its final landfall at Galveston Island, Texas on Sept. 13 as a Category 2 hurricane. Ike killed more than 80 people across the Caribbean and Bahamas, and another 20 in Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas. Total estimated U.S. property damage from Ike is estimated at $19.3 billion

Below are a few pictures flying through "Ike".  You may remember I had the opportunity to fly with the Hurricane Hunters through the storm on Sept. 11th, 2008.  The first picture was taken from 2000 feet as we were diverted onto a rescue mission.  A man fell off a boat in the northern Gulf and we were the only aircraft out there that could get a look.  We didn't see him.  The second picture is a brief clearing within the eye of Ike.  The third is an interview with one of the pilots during the flight.  If you have ever been inside a C-130, you know how loud it can be.  We were all wearing ear plugs.

Here's a list of names for the 2009 Hurricane season.

Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda

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Comments on Pattern Change and Upcoming Hurricane Season
The WeatherFanatic
Bobby, that was an incredible video. That guys is nuts! He's lucky some of that debris didn't pierce through his windshield.

I can't wait for this upcoming pattern. The AC will get a break, the ground will get to dry, and everyone will be smiling on a beautiful Sunday! Enjoy everyone! This is probably our last treat of spring weather before the real heat and humidity set in.

Theresa
Hi Todd, Oh do i hope this rain goes away. My daughter lives at Humnoke, And it's rain so much that she can't get in her yard. It looks like a lake. NO JOKE. She has not been able to stay at her house since last Sat. It has dropped 2 or 3 inches but she still cant get the car in there. Then i watched Ned tonight and if there is some more coming for tomorrow. DANG!!!!!!!!!!! Well Todd I will see you in the morning on daybreak. Please make the rain go away. Have a good weekend!!!!!!!! TheresaG

MISSY
Hi Todd. Are you busy with baby room again? I haven't heard from you on the blog since Tuesday. What is going on with our weather in the upcoming few days? Do you think we will get severe weather this Saturday? Do you think we will break any records with the upcoming cool weather? It sure will be nice to see a little cool air for a minute anyway. Thanks for all you do Tood. I know you must be busy.

Devin Flemens
Hey Todd we have picked up on 19 inches of rain since april 29th. Lake greeson went over the dam for the first time since may 18th 1968. I sent some pictures to younews of the lake.......... (Please send us the pictures on younews, Todd.)

Bobby Powers
It looks like once we get through this next round of storms Saturday cooler and dryer weather will dominate the weather pattern next week. It will be noticeably cooler with lows going back into the upper 40's to low 50's Monday morning and high's in the 70's. The dew points and humidity will drop and that will give us a chance to dry out from all the rain.

Bobby Powers
Check out this video footage to the Kirkville MO. Tornado. This guy is crazy or very good at storm chasing. He comes dangerously close to this tornado. He is on a dirt road with limited sight of the horizon. Debris is falling on his car and then he realizes the tornado is right beside him. One of the best I have every seen. www.severestudios.com

You can follow him and other weather geeks on twitter.com. Go sign up today and start your own weather twitter. You can find Todd and myself on there. I am listed under weatherclipper and Todd is at KATV_weather.

chubbs
Hello Um I really don't want anymore severe weather and I hope that the tornado threat will stay to the north.

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October
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