4:30 PM Wednesday Update...
***NEW POST TONIGHT***
Many have questions about heavy rain, severe threat, upcoming chilly weather, and long range forecast for the winter. Tons on the weather plate tonight.
3 PM Sunday Update... The forecast for the rest of the week continues to look complicated. I'll start a new blog post soon about the possibility for the coolest air of the season so far next weekend. Just in time for the State Fair.
Noon Saturday Update... A very complex weather situation is setting up for much of next week.
Now the models are showing highs Sunday even cooler than originally thought. The GFS has a high of 58 and the NAM says 61. Both show plenty of rainfall, especially for central and southern Arkansas where 1-3 inches could fall.
I still think Monday will be relatively quite until a new system drags another front into the state Tuesday. Rain chances go up again at that time. Will the front move south Wednesday or stall? That's debatable right now so I'm keeping rain chances up for the middle to end of the week. There will be the POTENTIAL for significant rainfall over the next 7 days. Something we DON'T need right now. Stay with Channel 7 for the latest information.
11 AM Friday Update... Sunday forecast changing fast. Models now indicating chance for rain is above 80 percent by the afternoon. The GFS has a high of 60 degrees. The NAM shows a high of 65.
It didn't get too rough Thursday night as the front plowed through the state, but it is a reminder that severe weather ramps up this time of the year. Here's what we know so far.
Waldron in Scott county - .75 inch hail
Near Lewisville in Lafayette county - tree down blocking highway 29
Near Bradley in Lafayette county - tree and powerlines down
Lockesburg in Sevier county - trees down
Nashville in Howard county - trees down
We're going to have a couple of very, very nice days as high pressure brings ultra low humidity and pleasant temperatures. Then the weather pattern gets active again.
The front which moved through will attempt to come back as a warm front as a moist southwesterly flow aloft develops. The models are now showing rain moving back into the southern part of the state Sunday. This is a typical overrunning situation and sometimes develops faster than the models predict. The forecast for Sunday will have to be watched carefully to see when and how far north the rain gets here.
Because of the overrunning moisture and cool easterly winds, the models are now indicating highs not getting out of the 60s Sunday. It is likely to be the coolest weather we have experienced since last spring.
With the southwesterly flow setting up, the position of the front will be difficult to pin down next week as waves of energy helps to produce periods of rain. While it won't be a wash out, there could be some heavy rains at times. As a matter of fact, the HPC manual charts indicates the southern half of the state receiving 1-4 inches of rain over the next 5 days.
How about record yearly rainfall? Given how wet it has been this year, we will watch Little Rock approach record yearly rainfall levels.
So far, Little Rock has received 52.06 inches this year. If we only receive normal rainfall through December 31st, it will be the 7th wettest year in Little Rock weather history. The 10th wettest was set in 1890 with 63.72 inches. The wettest year was 1882 with 75.54 inches. North Little Rock will also be cracking the top 10 as well. We'll be on "record watch" for the rest of the year... STAY TUNED.
WHAT WILL THIS WINTER BE LIKE??? I have been reading some of the weather bloggers and some are saying the El-Nino is not as strong as first thought. We may see a weak El-Nino or more neutral pattern during the winter months. The experts are calling for very cold conditions across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and the Northeast. It looks like more of what we saw last year across that area. They could be colder with extended periods of below zero weather and more snow than last year. I think these guys are in love with the Northeast and dream of big snow storms and below zero weather. It is so hard to find data that pin points Mid South Weather. Maybe there is a niche for that. We should start Midsouthweather.com
The storm track seems to be setting up to come out of the Pacific Northwest, swing down through the Central Rockies, and across Northern Louisiana. If this becomes the average storm track this winter we could see more snow and ice than normal, especially if the artic air gets in the mix. This will be fun to watch and see how it develops. Mostly likely Northeast Arkansas sees above average snow fall again this year and Little Rock south gets cold rain with the occasional ice and sleet.
What do you think Todd?
Let's get Bobby Powers and some others and predict the first snowfall of the 09-10 season!!!
October
