4 PM Thursday Update... Here's a pic from Allison Suitor in Bryant.

4 PM Thursday Update... Storms are producing plenty of hail.  Tornado sirens sounding in Saline county, but I see no signs of rotation there.  Here's a picture of hail in Bryant from Myra Koontz.

3 PM Thursday Update... Hail covering ground at Prescott.  If you have any pictures, please send them to photo@katv.com

Remember, we are now twittering at   http://twitter.com/katv_weather

2 PM Thursday Update... KATV is now on twitter.  Here's the address...  http://twitter.com/katv_weather

I'm watching the storms moving into SW and central Arkansas.  These could begin to produce hail.

7 AM Thursday Update...  The headlines next week could be..."Record Breaking COLD."

More on that below, but first I want to address the severe weather chances.  As Bobby pointed out below, the deep moisture necessary for a severe weather outbreak will once again stay south and east of Arkansas.  Mississippi and Alabama could have a rough day.  I still expect rain and storms with hail and wind the main threat.  The GFS is forecasting sustained winds late today of 26 knots as the front passes. 

Thankfully this year is much, much different than last year as large tornado outbreaks will not be as common.  We still have plenty of spring to go, so don't let your guard down.

Now onto the cold air next week.  Monday and Tuesday morning will be close to the freezing mark in Little Rock according to the models as a strong area of high pressure moves in.  The record low Monday morning is 31 in 1971 and the record Tuesday is 28 set in 2007.  I think the farmers around the state remember that 2007 temperature too well.  I sure hope this changes as it's still several days away.  It's something we will watch carefully especially due to the economic impact it COULD have.

I will try to post a few times today and tomorrow, but I will be quite busy.

8:30 PM Wednesday Update... I also wanted to point out the winds late tomorrow will be very, very strong as the front passes.  I expect sustained winds more than 20 mph with gusts exceeding 30 mph

6:30 PM Wednesday Update...  I'm getting concerned about very cold air arriving Monday into Wednesday with frost / freezing conditions for a least some areas of Arkansas.  The avg. date for the last freeze in Little Rock is March 22nd and the avg. date for the last frost is April 4th.  The models are indicating a strong high coming in from Canada at that time.

As far as severe weather is concerned for tomorrow, the greatest instability and shear will be east of Arkansas where a moderate risk has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center.  The amount of deep moisture return at the surface will be very limited.  The biggest threat Thursday will be hail from strong to severe thunderstorms.  I think the worst of the weather (tornadoes) will be east of the state.

Noon Update Wednesday... I just wanted to talk about the two systems coming into the state over the next few days.  I have not had much of a chance for deeply analyze the situation, but I'm not too worried about a big outbreak of severe weather.  The first system, Thursday, will not have deep moisture to work with.  A few strong to severe storms will still be possible.  The weekend system is strong, but may come in Sat. night when instability levels will be lower.  I'll keep watching it for you.

First of all, thanks to Bobby Powers for sending me this picture of mammatus clouds on his way to Missouri for the weekend. 

I will keep you updated this week as the pattern remains very active.  I don't see any big events yet, but several system will fly through in the upper level flow and should provide us with shower and storm chances.