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9 PM Thursday Update... New NAM has the high on Sat. now down to 44 with precip. It shows the upper low going further west with better snow chances. Remember, this is just a model and not a forecast. Even at 44, it would be tough to get flakes down to the surface. That's why I think northern Arkansas has the best chance with temps. there possibly staying in the 30s. There's a chance the low is so powerful, the lift cools the atmosphere even further. The models don't do well in these situations. Don't get too excited, I still don't think this will be a big deal. It may be our last chance for any snow though until next winter.
7 PM Thursday Update... As expected, the SPC has issued a severe thunderstorm watch until 2 AM this morning. Looking at the radar at 7 and you can clearly see the line of storms developing across OK into NW AR. While we were several degrees away from a record high here in Little Rock today, some locations in OK did break records. Now we will pay the price with a line of storms producing wind and some hail. Isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out. Please stay with Channel 7 for the latest.
Christy left a comment below about the snow chances in Mississippi and Alabama this weekend. It's from the same system that will bring some snow chances to NE AR. I have doubts the low will be that strong and that far south, but I will keep an eye on it. I really feel optimistic about flakes flying north and east of Little Rock. I'll let you know how far south I think it will be as we get closer. Again, we don't expect anything significant.
4 PM Thursday Update... There is so much going on with our weather! First of all, the threat for severe storms will exist tonight, but I don't expect a big outbreak. The models continue to indicate a vigorous upper low swinging through here Sat. I think temperatures fall much of the day with a rain/snow mix across northeastern Arkansas. How far south is the big question again. As Ninja points out below, if it goes more west, more sections of the state could see a few flakes. I still don't think it will be a big deal.
10AM Thursday Update... THERE IS HOPE!!!!! The lousy GFS is starting to come around the the idea that the upper level low will produce a few snow flakes, especially over northeastern Arkansas Saturday. The high temperature keeps coming down on each model run with the NAM showing temperatures falling all day. This wil NOT be a big event whatsoever, but considering we're in the 70s today with storms in the forecast, then a cold rain/snow NE is pretty remarkable. I'll keep you updated.
7 AM Tuesday Update... I have been keeping a close eye on a disturbance coming through this Saturday (last day of Feb.). The models indicate conditions cold enough in the upper levels for something frozen, but surface temperatures should be well above freezing. We'll see if this changes as the chance for any snow right now is extremely small, but I promised I would watch anything and everything for all of you snow lovers.
While there's nothing in the forecast, I thought it might be interesting to see what kind of snow has fallen in the past. Check out number 9 on the list. That was the big snow around March 7th. Little Rock only received 2.6 inches, but some places in northern and southeastern Arkansas received 6-10 inches. Also, the 8 inches that fell in 1892 occurred on the 17th. I wonder if it was green snow?
Interesting note if this strom track had set up when we had all the artic air around, we would have had one heck of a snow strom this year. Timing is everything! Bring on baseball and 80 degree weather!!!
Cold day today with not much warming even with late February Sun. We will see more cold weather before springs gets into full gear, but I am ready for some 70' without severe weather and clouds.
October
