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Saturday April 25, 2009 at 6:25 pm
Late April/Early May Soaker


8 PM Saturday Update... Minor damage has been reported near Rison and the weather service may go out and look at it over the next couple of days. 

The storms last night did spawn two tornadoes. The first tornado developed in southern Newton county about 4 miles W-SW of Nail.  It was rated an EF1 with a path of .5 mile.  It tracked through a very rural area with a few downed trees.

The second tornado was spawned in northern Pope  near Treat.  It was an EF0 with a path of .3 mile. Only a few trees on top of a ridge were knocked down.

12:30 PM Update... Tornado watch for southern Arkansas until 7 PM

Noon Update... Please send your rainfall amounts in the comment section below.  Flash flooding is a big concern and so is severe weather.  This Sat. afternoon, south Arkansas is warming to near 80 degrees with the front and outflow boundaries approaching.  I expect storms to initiate there and get a bit rough.  I'm watching it for you!

4:30 PM Friday Update... Here's an image of rainfall amounts through Sunday evening according to our exclusive model "Futurecast".  Remember, this is only a computer model, but it's in line with others showing heavy amounts of rainfall Sat. night into Sunday.

4 PM Friday Update... Severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 10 PM for the northern half of the state. 

The energy pulling out Sunday looks impressive and so will the rain amounts.  Futurecast shows several inches possible across the south half of the state Sunday.

2 PM Friday Update... There was a HUGE amount of rainfall with numerous water rescues in NE Oklahoma.  Here's an image of doppler radar estimates in that area...

7:45 AM Friday Update... Big thunderstorms now rolling out of NE Oklahoma into western Arkansas.  Severe thunderstorm watch now in effect for western Arkansas until 2.  Golf ball size hail possible with storms.

6:30 AM Friday Update... There is so much going on over the next seven days with our weather.  First of all, some places have seen heavy rainfall over the last several days and the ground is becoming saturated.  More rainfall is expected as a front moves into the state and disturbances interact with it.

I'm becoming more concerned with a potent system expected to arrive Sunday.  This will bring the potential for more very heavy rainfall and severe weather.  It does appear this will have enough power to push the moisture out Monday afternoon into Tuesday. 

One other note, I have been working on a story which airs tonight at 10 (Nightside).  It's about some alarming tornado statistics here in Arkansas.

1:30 PM Wednesday Update... The storms have decreased in intensity, but are still strong/severe.  I just had a brief thunderstorm here in W.L.R that dumped about .5 inch of rain in about 10 minutes.

11 AM Wednesday Update... A major storm complex is rolling through central and southern Oklahoma this morning.  A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for western Arkansas.  The image below is from late morning and it shows the storms "bowing out".  This is an indication of very high wind speeds at the apex of the bow.  Storm reports out of Oklahoma indicate some wind damage.  For those in west and southwest Arkansas, we will need to keep an eye on this to see if it holds together or not.  If it does, get ready for high winds, very heavy rainfall, and hail.  We'll keep you updated.

2:30 PM Tuesday Update... The heavy rain fell last night in parts of central and northeast Arkansas.  According to doppler radar, more than 5 inches fell in some spots with more to come.  Also, there was a weak tornado confirmed in Johnson county.  The EF1 tracked from 1.3 miles northeast of Clarksville to 2.7 miles S-SE of Hillcrest.  The length of the path was 3.1 miles.

Below is an image of doppler rain estimates as of Tuesday afternoon.

Get ready for an active weather pattern this last week of April.  It looks like a front will move into the state and stall out late Monday into Tuesday.  Waves of rainfall will be locally heavy and a strong to severe thunderstorm will be possible.

Below is a chart from the HPC showing the potential for heavy rainfall across the Red River Valley of Oklahoma into Arkansas.  I think it may be overdone, but it does show the potential for big soaker.  The yellow area indicates almost 9 inches of rainfall with 3-6 inch amounts extending into western Arkansas.

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Comments on Late April/Early May Soaker
Bobby Powers
Todd, I am sorry I missed your special segment on Arkansas Tornado data you collected. I follow just about all my news and weather online now! Can you post your news cast online so I can watch it at any time of the day or night? Can I see the segment on Arkansas Tornados online?

jimmylee42
Todd-just checked the rain gauge at 9 pm. It is right at 3 inches. Live in St. Charles.

The WeatherFanatic
Hey Todd, just under 2.75 inches for the day here in WLR (I don't think that we are too far apart), so that should be fairly consistent with your backyard. We picked up about a half of inch the other day during the lunch hour here as well from that isolated soaker that came out of nowhere.

It's looking like Futurecast's total of 4.10 won't be enough for the LR airport, but just about right here in WLR! I'm glad that we didn't see 10-12 inches like they did in NE OK...

sam temple
where is the tornado in texarkana headed?also I want to be a weather man when I grow up,next please tell me on channel 7 news nightside.

Richard Moneymaker
West Helena,AR as of 5:00P.M. has had over 5 inches of rain.

Devin flemens
Hey Todd looks like some heavy rain what about down here in sothwest ark is it going be alot down here? how about the sever?

Missy
Hey Todd, why aren't we getting much rain here in Little Rock. It seems to be going around us. I know we have gotten some, but not like they said. Thanks.

Devin Flemens
Hey Todd we got .20 of rain today and i got a nice picture of what lookd like a tornado but i dont think it was ill seed it.

Devin Flemens
Hey Todd we got 2.5 inches here at umpire lastnight and looks like some more may move in if it dont die out. How about the rain sunday does it look sever?

Devin Flemens
Todd we have got almost 2inches so far and still raining looks like alot more to come tonight. how about the rest of the week what part of the state is it going be for?

kenneth martin
Ha Todd Is there rotation in that storm just west of prescott in hempstead county just north of hope, arThe storm velocity on th n.w.s. shows rotation and the radar shows a hook and indentionin that storm look at it and see what you think

Devin flemens
Todd that is a nice line of storms does it look like it is going to hold togather?

Bobby Powers
Todd, I watched that storm that spawn the tornado in Clarksville last night . It was a small storm but looked like it was packing a big punch. Interesting to note that is produced a tornado. The experts always say a thunderstorm can proudce a tornado at any time. My daughter works for a physician in Clarksville and she called to tell me about the twister.

It looks like the front is stalling out. You can see the storms on radar are not moving much. The are setting in place and raining themselves out. Sort of a summer time pattern.

Devin Flemens
Todd we have had 80% two days in a row and havent seen a drop of rain seen sun all day today whats they deal are we going see any rain if not its going to get dry fast.

Bobby Powers
Todd and weather bloggers, It looks like the server weather fizzled and heavy rain evaporated! The high pressure that brought us above average temps and record highs out east has keep the big rain away so far. I hope this high does not set up this summer..??? If it does set up, look out for a hot dry summer! The HIGH should break down tomorrow as the front sags into the state. We could see some locally heavy amounts, but I don't see big rain amounts over a large area.

Devin Flemens
Todd what has happen we went from 100% of 3-6 inches to no rain now?

Kenneth Martin
Ha Todd, If that sun comes out and stays out with humidty and triggering device like a drylne coming in for lift in the heat of the day we might just have us some severe weather monday. I was watching channel 12 out of shreveport tonite before I watched channel 7 and it showed a MODERATE RISK OUT FOR WESTERN ARKANSAS FOR MONDAY. But I looked at the storm prediction center page they just had a slight risk for severe weather monday for arkansas. I know it has been hot down in PRESCOTT lately it has been in the upper 80's and lower 90's last wed-sat. I went fishing on lake degray saturday evening and nite and caught the limit on nice catfish it was fun. It has been nice here lately one extreme follows the other tho. I will be keeping and eye to the on monday and monday nite for severe weather I will keep you updated on what happens in PRESCOTT. By the way that tornado hit downtown mena the rotation you showed was north of mena just a little bit. They are having some big supercell in southwest texas if they hold together they might reach us here by monday sometime thats a long ways and plus the sun has gone down they the storms have a tendacy to weaken this time of year when they lose the heaten of the sun I was looking at some of supercells down in texas some of them had 4 inch plus hail in them and 47,000 foot tops big storms I would say. Talk to you later on monday Todd, LATER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The WeatherFanatic
This is music to my ears! The rain should all soak in as long as it doesn't come down too fast.

I've been out of the loop on the severe weather in Oklahoma and Kansas. It sounds like a few good sized supercells developed.

I've got my garden done at the just the right time. No need to water anytime soon!

Congrats Todd on the soon to be new member of the family. I'm sure he or she will turn out just fine!

Devin Flemens
Todd 3-6 inches or more here. It looks like to worst will be monday night and tuesday

Devin Flemens
Hey Todd looks like some real rain on the way keep us up to date on it.

Caleb
Hi Todd, looks like some pretty strong storms out in OK.?

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