The 2009 hurricane season officially starts Monday.  I thought it would be interesting to plot all of the storms that have tracked through Arkansas since 1950. (see graphic below).

Every storm is on here except Gustav and Ike from last year.  The database should be updated soon.  It's important to remember tropical systems can bring nasty weather to Arkansas.  Typically, the wind energy diminishes as they approach the state.  They can still produce flooding rainfall and tornadoes.  They're not your typical springtime tornadoes because they're usually weak and short lived. 

So what can we expect this season?  There are signs of a weak El Nino developing in the equatorial Eastern Pacific.  If this occurs, it would strengthen upper level winds to a point which would inhibit the development of tropical systems.  While we will still have to deal with a few, the number could be limited.  Many forecasts are calling for an average to below average season.  Government meteorologists say there's a good chance for 9-14 named storms.  Four to seven could become hurricanes and one to three could be major hurricanes.  Whether they hit the United States or not is the big question.  Below is a list of names for this season.