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6 AM Saturday Update... As of Sat. morning, there were NO reports or any tornadoes from Friday evening. I'll keep an eye on any reports that come in today, but it seems it was a non event as the rich, deep moisture stayed well south.
Weather Fanatic, Michael Bodiak, sent in a couple of pictures I want to share with everyone. The first one is an obvious lightning strike to a tree by his house. I'm sure it was LOUD! The other is a strange cloud formation. It looks like a funnel, but I don't think it is. This is the third picture I had sent in of this. Check it out...
2:30 PM Friday Update... You may not see this again for a long time.... Amarillo, Texas is 19 degrees with heavy snow and winds up to 46 mph. The wind chill is 1 degree as a blizzard rages there. Meanwhile in McAllen, TX, near the Mexico border, it's 101 degrees.
I still think severe weather will be possible this evening with the worst across south central in southeast Arkansas.
7:30 AM Friday Update... This complex storm is beginning to take shape with conditions we don't see very often. Right now, most of northwest Oklahoma, almost into Oklahoma City, is under a BLIZZARD WARNING for more than a foot of snow and winds around 40 mph. This area of the Sooner state this morning is under the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail before the transition to heavy snow.
Now onto the warm sector of the storm... There will be a portion of far southern Arkansas which will have the greatest amount of instability and shear combined to give a threat for severe storms including tornadoes. Further north, the main threat will be hail and gusty winds. This is due to the track of the surface low and how far north the warm, moist air is out in front of it. Below, I outlined the the area from Texarkana to Pine Bluff to Helena southward with the greatest risk. This can still change as we continue to monitor the track and the northward advancement of the unstable air. We are expecting things to get active late this afternoon and evening. I'll keep you posted.
10:15 PM Thursday Update... Devin, glad to hear you're ok. The threat for severe weather continues for Friday, especially south and southeast Arkansas.
9:15 PM Thursday Update... Devin Flemmens, radar indicated tornado in your area of Umpire. Hope everything is ok. Let us know what's going on as soon as possible.
4 PM Thursday Update... This is absolutely an amazing storm system which is developing. The storm will produce a major Blizzard for the Texas Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma on into Kansas. Snowfall amounts could exceed 18 inches in spots. There could be a few flakes across far northwestern Arkansas, but nothing significant is expected there. Amarillo, TX is at 68 degrees this afternoon and under a blizzard warning.
The surface low should track across south Arkansas. This will bring a threat for severe weather to that area of the state. Right now, I would place that risk from Texarkana to Pine Bluff to Helena southward. The SPC has placed southeast Arkansas under a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms. By Friday night into Saturday, cold air punches into the state with strong winds developing. Hold on, this is going to be a wild ride over the next couple of days. I'll keep you posted here!
Here's a picture from Leah Lukas of storm clouds over Sheridan Wed. evening.
Noon Update... This low on Friday keeps trending further south. As a result, winter storm watches are now in effect for northeastern Oklahoma. The threat for severe weather is decreasing for a large part of the state, except far southern Arkansas.
8 AM Thursday Update... Bobby, you can send pics to photo@katv.com.
The storm coming in Friday continues its trend south. This means the threat for severe weather will be confined to southern and eastern Arkansas. Snowfall amounts in Oklahoma into Kansas could exceed one foot. Many areas from Colorado to Oklahoma are under blizzard warnings to winter storm warnings.
The kitchen is coming along fine. The only thing I have left to do is spot sand the cabinets and paint them. It's looking good though!
7 AM Wednesday Update... We have a disturbance working through the area tonight and some of these storms could produce some hail.
My concern for severe weather Friday is decreasing for parts of the state. As stated earlier, the surface moisture and warm air return look questionable due to the track of this system. The surface low may track right over the state. This would bring the greatest instability to the southern half of Arkansas. The thing that is fascinating with this system is the strong upper low and its track which would give significant snow to Oklahoma to Kansas. There's even the chance some snow will be seen across far north and northwestern Arkansas. The GFS even indicates a few inches of snow from Fayetteville to Harrison. It also shows 12-14 inches of SNOW for places from Enid, Oklahoma to Coffeyville, Kansas. This is just a model, but it does give us a good idea where flakes will fly.
So far this week, Little Rock has received just under one inch of rainfall with more to come.
The pattern continue to look very active going into April so there will be more to track. I wonder if Ninja will chase snow in Oklahoma this weekend?
8 AM Tuesday Update... The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms will exist this afternoon and evening as a front moves into the state. The main energy however is moving well north. While I anticipate some rough weather, this will by a very typical event for Arkansas in March.
The system coming in Friday has the potential to be a bigger severe weather threat. The upper low moves very close to Arkansas with the surface low moving from Oklahoma into Missouri. The Storm Prediction Center has us outlined for an area of concern. This is posted below. The surface moisture return at this point looks a little questionable for central and northern Arkansas. The models are forecasting dewpoints to rise to about 60. Sometimes this is underdone, but it's something to watch. The jet dynamics are very favorable though. I'll keep you posted. This system will also have the potential to produce significant snowfall just west and north of the state from Oklahoma to Kansas to Missouri.
The GFS is still saying we will receive about 5 inches of rain between now and next Tuesday. HPC indicates 2 to 4 inches across the state with the highest amounts in eastern Arkansas.
9 PM Monday Update... Sorry I haven't updated. My kitchen is consuming much of my time at home. We're still working on it, but I can see the light at the end of the tunnel now.
The weather is extremely active right now with some places in South Dakota reporting heavy snow with wind gusts around 70 mph. Yes, that's a big time blizzard. We're in the warm sector of the same storm system. I expect a line of storms Tuesday. Some could bring hail and gusty winds. I am becoming increasingly concerned about Friday. I now think that will have a bigger potential for severe weather.
Rainfall over the next few days could also be significant. The GFS has a total of 5 inches through next Tuesday while the HPC has us getting 2-4 inches over the next five days.
I promise to post more often with the pattern as the pattern is very active.
As we go through these possible severe weather events, please don't forget to send us your reports and pictures.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our area for a risk of severe weather Tuesday. Since this is still several days away, the forecast is still likely to change. A strong storm system does move into the western United States and its affects should be felt Tuesday. The main energy does lift to the north, but a cold front will push across the state with a line of storms. I'll update this forecast throughout the weekend. Below is the risk from the Storm Prediction Center.
The most amazing thing we saw on the trip up hwy 65 was some cool cloud formation. Todd, I sent you pic but not sure If it made it to you. I am still working on how to do this. The cloud formations that we saw were Mammatus Clouds which are associated with very strong storm systems and Thunderstorms. I was also shocked to see the tree damage from the January ICE storm. In some sections I would say at least half the trees had damage. It looked like a tornado came through at tree line level and tour them up. It will take years to for some of the forest to look normal again.
I was fun reading all the post from the last few days and I am glad to be home. My son does not like weatherNut! I could go with lightningBob? what do you guys think...???
My son finaly made it back from his youth group ski trip this morning at 4am. Everyone was safe.
I went to "www.weather.com" and typed in Fort Smith, AR" at the top and it showed Fort Smith in a tornado warning!!!! It showed Scott and Sebastian Counties in a tornado warning. I noticed you guys didnt have it posted on the website.Just wanted to let you know.
Thanks, Kaleb
What an incredible spread! You are right, this is something that you rarely see, especially in the same state!
I was awoken in the middle of the night by a loud clap of thunder. My wife said that at the top of the hill in our neighborhood, lightning hit an oak tree and split the bark right down the middle. I'll try to get a shot and send it in. We also got an additional 1.75 inches of rain last night, putting my weekly total near 4 inches! The ground is pretty saturated, so I hope that we don't any more than an inch tonight.
Be safe everyone, especially in southern Arkansas.
I saw the update to the moderate risk. I see NWS Little Rock forecasters believe the surface low will track from Texarkana to just south of Memphis. I was looking at a couple of the models this afternoon and it really looks like a Mena to Jonesboro track which would bring more of central AR into the warm sector and increase our severe weather threat. If the surface low tracks as you point out Todd..then southcentral and southeast AR better watch out, especially if we get any breaks in the clouds during the morning.
For Wheelman: I would say the entire southcentral,southeast and east central portions of Ar are under the gun along with Louisiana and NW Mississippi.
I plan on going out tomorrow if conditions develop.
Have a good time in Branson WeatherNut! This is going to be a wild ride as Todd said and I can't wait to see how it all plays out.
Now we have WeatherNinja, Weather Fanatic, & Weather Nut. We need to form a band : Todd & the Weather Names.
Roll with it! I couldn't find my camera last night as I was staring down those neat cloud formations. I have a great reference book at home that should have the name of that particular formation. It was amazing look and that shot that Todd posted is incredible!
This sounds like a dangerous travel scenario for folks who have to dodge a blizzard and tornado threat coming back from Spring Break. Hopefully people will use good judgment on the roads.
I'm happy with the rainfall that we've had here in LR. I have received about 2 inches the past 48 hours with more to come!
I sure would love to snow chase, but it doesn't appear to be in the cards. I would have been happy if this happened 3 weeks ago when I was in Fayetteville. Oh well. I noticed that Benton county is under a Winter Storm watch.
Todd,
Do you still not think they will have accumulating snow? If it comes down hard enough, they may get a couple of inches.
Did you see the EF3 damage in Megee MS this morning! It was wired seeing tornado damage and fog!
Did anyone see the cloud formations yesterday before the storms moved in? I tried to find the formations on the internet to find out what they are called, but could not find a name. I did find several photos that was identicle to what I saw. My pics did not turn out so I could post them. I am a rookie with cell phone picture taking. I will work on it.
Everyone stay safe out there and happy forecasting!
WeatherNut! (how does this sound for a blogger name?)
I agree with the severe weather threat moving south. It looks like SE Arkansas would have the best chance. The Storm Predicition Center was concerned about strong tornadoes just to the south and southeast of the track of the surface low. That would put the risk in extreme SE Ark, LA, MS. But they also mentioned ongoing storms south of us robbing the mositure.
My daughter said the storms that rolled through the Destin area this morning were impressive. There was a doppler indicated tornadoe west of Destin but did not know about any damage. She said the waves are impressive but since it is pouring outside no one is going in the water. The rip currents would be bad.
I know some kids that will be coming back from some Colorado spring break skiing that may have an intersting ride home.
I keep hearing y'all says the severe weather is going to be south and east of Little Rock. How far exactly?? Will it be more south of Stuttgart?? Just wondering what the surrounding areas will be exposed to rather than just Little Rock! We need some guidance and understanding down here too!!! Thanks!
As far as severe weather. I have to agree with Bobby in that if the surface low tracks south of LR then the severe threat moves to the SE corner and areas of MS, LA, TX. It looks like they will have enough instablility, moisture, and wind energy to support an outbreak of severe weather. My daughter will be coming back from Florida and they will have to travel right through it. It's a good thing I have trained her (she's 16) on what to look for.
I guess we are going to have to wait and see what transpires. Looks like a pretty solid line moving through NW Lousiana at this time with some elevated convetion moving up from the SW.
Todd..I have been playing with Weather Defender. It seems pretty accurate with rainfall intesity. I had it locked in on Maumelle yesterday evening since it was showing some heavy rainfall and this morning the rain guages showed over two inches.
How is the kitchen project going?
It looks like our threat for server thunderstorms may be on the increase this afternoon. The sun is out and warming the atmosphere and a disturbance will move through later. Will be fun to watch and see if we get any hail reports.
Happy forcasting!
All of us regulars on this blog are a little "off" if you know what I mean-so no worries.
What amazes me is how fast these systems move this time of the year. Hopefully we'll see some sunshine Friday afternoon before the cooler air arrives. I typically don't get too excited until the dewpoints get to around 65, but as we all know, Tornadoes can be healthy even with the points in the high 50's-low 60's, with enough dynamics in the atmosphere.
During this time of year we need to thank our NWS spotters and the team at channel 7 for the endless hours of work they do to keep Arkansas safe. I know I appreciate them and no other channel comes close.
As some of you posted..the severe weather today is nothing to get excited about.
Friday is going to be interesting. It looks like a lot of wind energy in the upper atmosphere, the amount of instability forecast looks decent, but I would prefer to see a little sunshine to warm the atmosphere. With showers and thunderstorms around Thursday night into Friday morning, that would be the only thing that may limit the amount of severe weather as temperatures would probably warm to around 70, with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s.
I would not be suprised to see some snowfall even into the northwest/northcentral Ar as thhe upper low swings through early Saturday morning. The models have been hinting at this as they go through their normal flip/flop cycle.
If conditions warrant..I will be out on Friday afternoon/evening.
"Happiness is a good natural disaster" ....
Friday appears to be a dangerous day. I can't wait to see how it all plays out. Unfortunately I have to work, so no chasing unless it arrives after 5 pm..
The heavy rain will set up somewhere as the front stalls and pulls back north. We could see some training where the axis of precept sets up. Where this set up occurs we will see some big rain fall amounts.
Friday's storm will need to be watched for possible tornado outbreak somewhere in the midsouth. The location of the jet and upper level low is a classic set up for a major outbreak. We need to be careful about the hype, but people should keep updated on the forecast. There are so many variables that must come into play to get a record outbreak..!!! Moisture, heat, dew point, wind dynamics all have to come together at just right time to spark these huge long track tornados. Let?s hope that we do not see a record outbreak. Where is the WeatherNinja..??? We would love to get your input on the late week storm.
THANKS
HA HA
ALSO, ACCUWEATHER SAYS THE FIRST DAYS OF APRIL WILL SEE SEVERE WEATHER.
The end of the week looks scarry! Big upper level low diggs in and comes into the mid south Friday. Warm moist air surges north and strong jet pushes into the storm. Could see our first tornado outbreak in Arkansas late Thursday or Friday! What are your sources saying about the possible outbreak the end of the week.
1993 was the 500 year flood of the mid-west
The new flood of 2008 is named the 500 year flood
In 1993 there was a huge flood also in the same area that was Huge ...was that the 500 year also ?
October
