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In the comment section, Missy asked what I dressed up as for our halloween show on Saturday Daybreak. I went as "record rain". I put a few 45's on my shirt and labeled them with song titles with "rain" in the name. For example, "Purple Rain", "November Rain", and "Singing in the Rain." I'll also attach a picture below of my son Blake. He was a monkey. Enjoy.
If we make it through Sunday without any rainfall, it will be the longest stretch of dry weather this year. Right now, the period of June 15-22 (8 days) is the longest period without measurable rainfall at the official observation station in Little Rock.
This is how bored we are in the weather center right now. We hope it stays this way for awhile.
9 PM Thursday Update... Ida is now a tropical depression. I'm still watching for the possibility of some of its moisture moving towards Arkansas next week. We're hoping most of it can be swept east.
Noon Thursday Update... I don't like what I'm seeing in the tropics. Hurricane Ida could make it into the Gulf. It's more likely to affect areas east of Arkansas, but this year, it's possible to come further west. I'm watching it carefully.
10 PM Saturday Update... I have a couple of pictures I wanted to share with everyone. The first one is from Meteorologist John Robinson with the National Weather Service. He does most of the storm survey work in the state. He says in all his years with the office, he has never seen power crews fix lines downed by a tornado from a boat. I think the picture sums up this year quite well.
The second picture is from Jeff Mesko from Beebe. They are trying to dry out after flooding rainfall. Thanks for the pictures everyone.
4:30 PM Saturday Update... Thanks for the comments below. To answer Ninja's question, I just got off the phone with John Robinson with the weather service and they will conduct the survey in Scott Monday.
He just confirmed to me that the EF1 tornado which tracked from 1.7 miles south of Louann to 3.7 miles NNE of East Camden stayed on the ground for 19.5 miles. The track on the EF2 has not been completed
Bobby, I will more than likely sum up October on our newscast Sunday. I'm not trusting the GFS right now. I think the Euro has a better handle on the long term and I don't like what I see towards the end of next week. Uggghhhhh.
Noon Saturday Update... For the next several days, ENJOY! Looking ahead, the European model is hinting at the next system swinging by sometime next weekend. If it's consistant with it, i'll start a new post. Like I said, enjoy this weather.
You can send fall color pictures to photo@katv.com
4:30 PM Friday Update... Preliminary information from the survey team in East Camden area indicates 2 tornadoes. The one that hit the firefighter Academy was rated an EF2 (111-135 mph). The other tornado was an EF1. There's still plenty of survey work to be conducted over the weekend.
8:50 AM Friday Update... It's now the wettest October in Little Rock weather history with 16.35 inches and counting.
11:30 PM Thursday Update... Little Rock has received 4.85 inches so far and counting. This puts us at the 5th wettest year on record. If we receive just .16' ' before midnight, it will be the wettest October day in history. Right now, it's the second wettest.
9:40 PM Thursday Update... Now up to 4.3 inches at Little Rock. 6th wettest year on record and only .2' ' away from 5th wettest. Flooding widespread throughout central Arkansas. Here's Markham and Van Buren
Little Rock now up to 3.04 inches and still counting. So far for the year we are up to 65.61 inches. Still 7th wettest8:03 PM Thursday Update... This is getting bad. We're getting reports of evacuations and people trapped in cars ( unconfirmed) just east and NE of Little Rock.
We now have a yearly rainfall total of 64.98 inches making it the 7th wettest on record
8 PM Thursday Update... I can take a breather now since the severe threat is really winding down. As of this particular moment, it's the 8th wettest year on record with 64.66 inches. Unbelievable. Good job Ninja. I wasn't completely sold on the severe aspect, Ninja was! Our thoughts and prayers go out to East Camden where a tornado hit that community. It will be surveys Friday by the weather service and we'll have the official here for you.
The heavy rain bands, as Bobby pointed out, are setting up over central Arkansas. The movement of the system is faster, but we can still expect 3-6 inches or more by this time Friday.
9 AM Thursday Update... We are now only .72' ' away from breaking into the top 10 wettest years on record. This will more than likely happen sometime today. The models are in much better agreement with a swath of very heavy rainfall right through central Arkansas over the next two days. This is reflected in the chart below from the HPC. It indicates a very large area of the state receiving more than 5 inches of rainfall.
The threat for severe weather is there today and this evening only. The best instability is south of the state so my concern for this is still not as great as the potential for flash flooding.
You need to be prepared for power outages since it will not take much wind to knock trees over with the ground being so saturated. I don't expect anything widespread, but have a flashlight ready to go. There are more records that could be broken this month and they are listed below the graphic.
There's so much going on right now with our weather so we'll continue to keep you updated here, on Channel 7, and on our new all weather channel 7-3 powered by Accuweather.com (Comcast 208).
Please send us your rain amounts in the comment section below. Please include your location and time of measurement.
Our October rainfall is 10.87 inches. This makes it the 3rd wettest October on record. The wettest October on record was back in 1984 with 15.35 inches. That puts us 4.48 inches away from that record.
Also, the wettest October day on record was October 18, 1984 with 5.11 inches.
What about temperatures? If October were to end today, it would be the 2nd coldest on record by average monthly high temperature.
10 PM Tuesday Update... Here's the model output from the NAM this evening. Hope it's wrong. It shows a narrow corridor of 7-8 inches through Arkansas in the yellow.
5 PM Tuesday Update... Now we are 1.15 inches away from the top 10 and I think it's just about a done deal that we will get there Thursday and Friday. As a matter of fact, if some of the models are correct, by the end of the next rain event, we could have the 5th or 6th wettest year on record and the wettest October on record. It all depends on where this heavy rain sets up. The models are disagreeing right now. The mid afternoon run of the NAM has 7-8 inches here in central Arkansas. I think that is too high, but it shows how dynamic and moist this system will be.
In response to Bobby's comment. The severe threat is there, but I think the best instability could remain south of us. It's something to watch, but I am more concerned about heavy rainfall on top of saturated ground.
To add insult to injury, power outages could be a concern since it would take very little wind to knock over trees with this saturated soil. Also, our fall color season could be cut short because of any rain and wind. It's looking more and more likely we will make history this year as the wettest ever.
2 PM Tuesday Update... We are now 1.26 inches away from the top 10 wettest years on record. Like I said below, it will more than likely happen at the end of the week
One of the comments on this blog post asks what kind of winter followed each of the top 10 wettest years. Whether it was a persistent pattern of rain or enhanced tropical activity moving across Arkansas, they were wet for different reasons. I'm pointing that out because there really isn't a connection between the excessive rainfall and the snow that followed, but it's fun to look at so here it is.
1. 1882-83: 1' '
2. 1973-74: .3' '
3. 1884-85: 1.9' '
4. 1957-58: 5' '
5. 1990-91: Trace
6. 1927-28: Trace
7. 1978-79: 11.2' '
8. 1979-80: 1.4' '
9. 1984-85: 11.3' '
10: 1890-91: 5.2' '
9:30 AM Tuesday Update... 1.72 inches away from top 10.
7 AM Tuesday Update... We are now 1.95 inches away from breaking into the top 10 wettest years on record and from what I have seen this morning, the storm system late this week should put us there. A strong storm system will gather across the desert southwest as a ridge develops across the southeastern states. The circulation around the two should transport tremendous amounts of moisture into the state. As the storm system pulls into the central United States, rain and storms will become likely Thursday into Friday. The latest charts from HPC indicates 2-4 inches possible. The weekend still looks good.
Officially, according to the National Weather Service office, Little Rock has had 61.53 inches as of Sunday night. This means we are only 2.19 inches away from breaking into the top 10 wettest years on record. We're not there yet, but this week will more than likely put us there. Here's a list of the wettest years in Little Rock weather history.
We will deal with two systems this week. I think the second one poses the highest threat for heavy rainfall and even a strong to severe thunderstorm will be possible. On Sunday night, the HPC updated their 5 day rainfall chart. If this verifies, we will break into the top 10 wettest years and challenge October rainfall records as well. The map below indicates the possibility of 3-6 inches of rain over the next 5 days. It's not set in stone and is subject to change.
On a lighter note, thanks for all the suggestions for a Halloween costume. I have made my final decision and you will see it on the Halloween edition of Saturday Daybreak.
November
