7 AM Friday Update... If November ended today, it would be the 2nd driest on record. That's Arkansas weather for you!
3:30 PM Thursday update... Sorry I have not updated over the past couple of days. I'm a bit "under the weather", but rebounding now.
Don't forget the contest ends Friday evening at 9 PM. Also, we want to hear what you stock up on when winter weather hits. Check out the comment section and give us your thoughts.
Ninja is throwing in a prize to the snow and rain total winner. Golden Corral sounds good! Check out his post in the comment section.
8 AM Tuesday Update... Since there will not be much weather this week, I have decided to extend the time for entries until this Friday evening at 9 PM. We have had several so keep them coming. By the way, we had a bit of light rain/snow mix near the Missouri border last night.
Until then, Ninja brought up an interesting topic in the comment section. What do you buy at the store and consider the "necessities" when snow or ice hit? Everyone always thinks milk and bread, but you may have something else you want to stock up with. I reported every now and then when I worked in Chattanooga and it was the beer shelf that would empty out first.
I wanted to try something that has never been done before and it involves all of you. Since we started this blog a couple of years ago, it's obvious how much our bloggers love tracking weather, especially winter weather. This contest will be fun to follow this season.
I want you to guess how much snow will fall this winter at the official observation station at Little Rock Adams Field. These are "Price is Right" rules so you must guess to the nearest tenth of an inch WITHOUT going over. The winter season is defined as now until March 31st.
Also, you can guess how much rain we will end up with by December 31st at Little Rock Adams Field. The total as of Saturday, November 14th is 68.26 inches. You must guess to the nearest hundredth of an inch without going over.
Send in your amount to weather@katv.com
I will keep them secret and out of the comment section until the guessing ends Tuesday night (November 17th) at 9 PM. Depending on the amount of entries, I might post them here. Make sure to include your name.
Now onto the storm heading into our direction at the beginning of the week. The system will be cut off from the main flow. The GFS wanted to cut it off further west while the Euro cuts it off over Arkansas and Missouri. The Euro has been the most consistent and this Saturday morning, the GFS is starting to look like the Euro. I have highs Tuesday and Wednesday in the upper 50s, but will more than likely drop them to low to mid 50s while northern Arkansas has highs only in the 40s. The upper levels look cold enough for snow across the north into Missouri with any wrap around moisture, but surface temps. could be too warm and moisture should be limited as well. Don't get excited, there could be a few snowflakes in Oklahoma into Kansas and Missouri.
This is the beginning of an active weather pattern. We will end our stretch of dry weather which should turn out to be 16 days straight. For those of you craving snow, like me, don't pay any attention to the GFS details past 5 days. It's good to analyze the data for trends, but the details will be wrong 90% of the time past that 5 day period.
The system next week should be fun to watch. The European model has been fairly consistent with cutting it off across northern Arkansas and into Missouri. It brings in chilly temps. aloft with plenty of clouds. This could turn out to be fireplace weather for many of us. The first thing to watch is Monday as the front passes through the state. There could be some locally heavy rainfall. Tuesday and Wednesday should be mostly cloudy, cool, and breezy. Right now I have highs in the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday, but it's possible that many locations especially across northern Arkansas only have highs in the 40s. I noticed the NWS out of Norman, OK even has rain/snow mix in the forecast out there with that low spinning through.
Someone left a comment about the GFS showing snow around Thanksgiving. If I had a dollar for every time it said that, there would be no need for me to play "Powerball". I would own my own doppler in my backyard and might have enough left over to buy a few TV stations. Sorry, I couldn't refuse the sarcasm. I love looking out into the long term to see what it says. While I don't believe the snow, I do think it will become much more active and fun to follow over the next few weeks.
Don't forget to check back later this weekend.
5 PM Thursday Update... Sorry I havn't updated much this week, there's so much going on right now.
The next system looks fairly strong and should arrive later Sunday into Monday. If the long term models are correct, we can expect quite chilly and breezy conditions Tuesday into Wednesday. I'll update more in the coming days.
7:30 AM Tuesday Update... Hope everyone is enjoying this nice weather. Here is something I stumbled upon this morning. NOAA says that last month was the third coolest October on record for the entire country. Digging deeper into their research I found the following...
"Arkansas continued its remarkable run of wetness in 2009. The state has seen four months with top three precipitation ranks this year (May, 1st wettest; July, 3rd wettest; September, 2nd wettest; October, 1st wettest). As a result, the state's year-to-date average is the wettest in 115 years of record keeping. This contrasted with persistent dryness in Arizona, which saw its second-driest year-to-date period."
10 PM Saturday Update... I have an update to the tornado outbreak on October 29th. Two more tornadoes were confirmed today by the survey team with the National Weather Service. They were both in Grant county. This brings the tornado count to 15 that day. Our total for 2009 is now up to 44 which is well above average.
In the comment section, Missy asked what I dressed up as for our halloween show on Saturday Daybreak. I went as "record rain". I put a few 45's on my shirt and labeled them with song titles with "rain" in the name. For example, "Purple Rain", "November Rain", and "Singing in the Rain." I'll also attach a picture below of my son Blake. He was a monkey. Enjoy.
If we make it through Sunday without any rainfall, it will be the longest stretch of dry weather this year. Right now, the period of June 15-22 (8 days) is the longest period without measurable rainfall at the official observation station in Little Rock.
This is how bored we are in the weather center right now. We hope it stays this way for awhile.
9 PM Thursday Update... Ida is now a tropical depression. I'm still watching for the possibility of some of its moisture moving towards Arkansas next week. We're hoping most of it can be swept east.
Noon Thursday Update... I don't like what I'm seeing in the tropics. Hurricane Ida could make it into the Gulf. It's more likely to affect areas east of Arkansas, but this year, it's possible to come further west. I'm watching it carefully.
10 PM Saturday Update... I have a couple of pictures I wanted to share with everyone. The first one is from Meteorologist John Robinson with the National Weather Service. He does most of the storm survey work in the state. He says in all his years with the office, he has never seen power crews fix lines downed by a tornado from a boat. I think the picture sums up this year quite well.
The second picture is from Jeff Mesko from Beebe. They are trying to dry out after flooding rainfall. Thanks for the pictures everyone.
4:30 PM Saturday Update... Thanks for the comments below. To answer Ninja's question, I just got off the phone with John Robinson with the weather service and they will conduct the survey in Scott Monday.
He just confirmed to me that the EF1 tornado which tracked from 1.7 miles south of Louann to 3.7 miles NNE of East Camden stayed on the ground for 19.5 miles. The track on the EF2 has not been completed
Bobby, I will more than likely sum up October on our newscast Sunday. I'm not trusting the GFS right now. I think the Euro has a better handle on the long term and I don't like what I see towards the end of next week. Uggghhhhh.
Noon Saturday Update... For the next several days, ENJOY! Looking ahead, the European model is hinting at the next system swinging by sometime next weekend. If it's consistant with it, i'll start a new post. Like I said, enjoy this weather.
You can send fall color pictures to photo@katv.com
4:30 PM Friday Update... Preliminary information from the survey team in East Camden area indicates 2 tornadoes. The one that hit the firefighter Academy was rated an EF2 (111-135 mph). The other tornado was an EF1. There's still plenty of survey work to be conducted over the weekend.
8:50 AM Friday Update... It's now the wettest October in Little Rock weather history with 16.35 inches and counting.
11:30 PM Thursday Update... Little Rock has received 4.85 inches so far and counting. This puts us at the 5th wettest year on record. If we receive just .16' ' before midnight, it will be the wettest October day in history. Right now, it's the second wettest.
9:40 PM Thursday Update... Now up to 4.3 inches at Little Rock. 6th wettest year on record and only .2' ' away from 5th wettest. Flooding widespread throughout central Arkansas. Here's Markham and Van Buren
Little Rock now up to 3.04 inches and still counting. So far for the year we are up to 65.61 inches. Still 7th wettest8:03 PM Thursday Update... This is getting bad. We're getting reports of evacuations and people trapped in cars ( unconfirmed) just east and NE of Little Rock.
We now have a yearly rainfall total of 64.98 inches making it the 7th wettest on record
8 PM Thursday Update... I can take a breather now since the severe threat is really winding down. As of this particular moment, it's the 8th wettest year on record with 64.66 inches. Unbelievable. Good job Ninja. I wasn't completely sold on the severe aspect, Ninja was! Our thoughts and prayers go out to East Camden where a tornado hit that community. It will be surveys Friday by the weather service and we'll have the official here for you.
The heavy rain bands, as Bobby pointed out, are setting up over central Arkansas. The movement of the system is faster, but we can still expect 3-6 inches or more by this time Friday.
9 AM Thursday Update... We are now only .72' ' away from breaking into the top 10 wettest years on record. This will more than likely happen sometime today. The models are in much better agreement with a swath of very heavy rainfall right through central Arkansas over the next two days. This is reflected in the chart below from the HPC. It indicates a very large area of the state receiving more than 5 inches of rainfall.
The threat for severe weather is there today and this evening only. The best instability is south of the state so my concern for this is still not as great as the potential for flash flooding.
You need to be prepared for power outages since it will not take much wind to knock trees over with the ground being so saturated. I don't expect anything widespread, but have a flashlight ready to go. There are more records that could be broken this month and they are listed below the graphic.
There's so much going on right now with our weather so we'll continue to keep you updated here, on Channel 7, and on our new all weather channel 7-3 powered by Accuweather.com (Comcast 208).
Please send us your rain amounts in the comment section below. Please include your location and time of measurement.
Our October rainfall is 10.87 inches. This makes it the 3rd wettest October on record. The wettest October on record was back in 1984 with 15.35 inches. That puts us 4.48 inches away from that record.
Also, the wettest October day on record was October 18, 1984 with 5.11 inches.
What about temperatures? If October were to end today, it would be the 2nd coldest on record by average monthly high temperature.
November
