NOON Update... I just want to set the record straight, I never said the next low would miss Arkansas,  I said some of the models are suggesting it and it concerns me.  The 12Z Euro IS much further north than the GFS so there's hope for the southern 1/2.

I'm working on a something special for all of you,  Details later.

7 AM Tuesday Update... I guess I'm up early since I went to bed so early as well.  It was a good sleep after such a long, crazy Monday.  I made a mistake below.  The daily snow total was 7.2 inches for Little Rock.  The seasonal total is 8.7 inches which means Chad Gardner is winning the snow contest right now.  Also, I will look it up, but that must be the highest snowfall total in many years in Little Rock.

I have deep concerns about the late week system.   I think there's a chance it misses most of Arkansas and only affects far southern areas with some snow.  I'll keep you updated.

9 PM Monday Update... Updated snow total for Little Rock is 7.1 inches and at North Little Rock it's 4.9 inches.  This means WeatherNinja is leading the snowfall contest, but barely.  If we get a tenth of an inch tonight, Sarah Langston will be in the lead and she won the rainfall contest.  Thanks for all the pictures.  We have received well north of 1000.  I'll post one below that I stumbled upon.  I will go through most of them tomorrow.   Thanks for taking the time to send them to us!  I wish we could put every single one on the air.

Looking at the latest data for the late week system, I have concern this will go so far to the south that it misses Arkansas.  Right now, the best chance of course is the south section of the state.  Everyone have a good night and stay safe and warm.

7 PM Monday Update... What a day!  Thanks to everyone again for being here and getting your info. on the weather blog.  If you're new, welcome! 

We will deal with some light to moderate snow later this evening as some wrap around moisture moves across the state.  I don't expect much at all compared to what happened today.  I suspect a dusting to 2 inches will be possible with higher amounts the further north you live.  The temp. will fall tonight and the roads and all the slush everywhere will turn to a brick of solid ice.  It won't be pretty.  I know many of you want info. on the next storm late Thursday into Friday.  Right now, I think it's central and southern Arkansas that stands the best chance for accumulating snow.  The cold air will be here, but it's a question as to how much moisture will be around with such a southern track to the next storm.  The NAM this afternoon showed a potent low moving out of the southwest. There's always the chance this storm goes so far south that it misses Arkansas. I will start a new blog post soon about this next storm.

Everyone thanks again, stay safe, and stay warm.

2 PM Monday Update... The blog has been so much fun today.  Thanks everyone.  The slushy mess out there will turn into a "brick of ice" tonight as lows drop well into the 20s.  Expect very hazardous driving conditions in the morning, but improvment throughout the day as we warm up and the sun comes out.

The heaviest snow axis is setting up from Perry county through Faulkner county east and northward.  Everyone enjoy the snow and thanks for making this blog what it is!

This is from WeatherNinja's Deck.  Where's HUGH?  Hello HUUUGGGGHHHHH!?

Midnight Update... moderate sleet in west Little Rock.

11:30 PM Sunday Update... On the news Sunday night, I expressed concern that the rain/snow line could sink further south if one of the models (NAM) was right.  Now the GFS has come in with heavy amounts of snow further south.  This is an extremely tricky forecast for Monday.  A couple of degrees is the difference between a cold rain and several inches of snow.  I have the two main model forecast snow amounts linked below.  Be sure to watch "Daybreak" with Barry and Melinda in the morning for the latest information.  I will be updating here on the blog Monday and possibly video blogging.

CLICK HERE FOR THE NAM TOTAL 84 HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATION

CLICK HERE FOR THE GFS 120 HOURS SNOW ACCUMULATION

9:45 PM Sunday Update... The NAM continues to paint a colder and wetter solution for central Arkansas, but it's the outlier within all the other models.  The GFS has been consistant with a morning mix changing to rain.  I still believe this is a north Arkansas snow with any accumulations in Little Rock small and late in the day.  It's impt. to note, due to the variability in the models, it's still a close call at this point.  Our Futurecast model shows a morning mix of sleet/snow/rain going to rain, then back to snow late in the day.  I wish I had better news for those of you in the metro area, but you won't have to go too far north to see some nice accumulations.  For those of you up north, please send us your pictures to photo@katv.com

2:30 PM Sunday Update... The NAM has now made it three runs in a row with a colder and wetter solution.  The 12Z UKMET model is on board with the NAM.  Our exclusive model, Futurecast, brings one inch to Little Rock.  It will be interesting to see what the late afternoon GFS shows.

11 AM Sunday Update... For those of you who have seen the 06Z and 12Z NAM snowfall accumulation, it must be regarded as an outlier within all of the other models.  In case you haven't seen it yet, it shows a significant southward shift of the heavy precipitation with much colder air.  If it were to verify, snow would be heavy in west central into central Arkansas.  Again, I am not buying it right now.  The more consistant GFS is the way to go for now until the NAM gets support from other short range models.  There are occasions when outliers lead the way with a developing storm system, but we must remember, the NAM did not do well with the last system and the GFS did.  I'm going to be keeping an eye on it all day long.  Right now the heavist snow band should set up from Clarksville to north central Arkansas.  This is of course subject to change.  I think it's still possible to begin as a mix in central Arkansas, then go to a miserable cold rain with readings around 34 to 36 degrees Monday.

The GFS has shifted a bit northward with the late week system and looking more like the Euro.  We have so much to watch this week.  Below are the model runs from this morning.  Look at the huge difference, but put more weight on the GFS heavy snow north.  PLEASE NOTE THE SNOW ACCUMULATION IN SW ARKANSAS IS NOT WITH THE MONDAY SYSTEM, THAT IS POSSIBLE SNOW FROM THE THURSDAY STORM.

8 AM Sunday Update... The new 12Z NAM is not making the forecast any easier.  Just like its previous 6Z run, it's colder and brings frozen precip. into central Arkansas Monday morning.  Remember, the NAM had a difficult time with the last system and the GFS outperformed it.  The GFS has been more consistant with this system so right now, the NAM is an outlier.  However, it will be interesting to see if the 12Z GFS trends in that direction.  Just when I thought it was going to be an easy forecast, Mother Nature has tricks up her sleeve.

7:30 AM Sunday Update... Yes, I'm up early today.  Whenever there's a storm on the horizon like this one, I want to stay on top of it.

I still expect a very heavy band of snow to set up somewhere across northern Arkansas.  This band will be narrow with amounts 6-8 inches or more.  The 06Z NAM is much colder and further south, but so far, that's the only model I have seen doing that.  Winter storm watches have been expanded across northern Arkansas and I expect some sort of advisory/watch/warning across west central areas as well.  Check out these links from some of the model data for snowfall accumulation.  As for the last week system, the GFS says no and the Euro says YES!  I love the Euro in the long range so it's still something to watch.

10 PM Saturday Update... Latest data I just looked at continues to suggest the Monday system will bring wintry weather mainly to northern Arkansas.  There should be a narrow band of heavy snow which sets up well to the north of Little Rock.  The only chance for central Arkansas to see any snow out of this will be as it ends Monday night into early Tuesday morning.  Even if that materializes, it won't be much.  I wish I could change this, but we are now getting inside the time periods when the models get a handle on what should happen and they're coming into agreement.  Remember, we're dealing with the weather so anything can happen.

The late week system continues to offer a chance for more wintry weather, but it's too early to say where and what.  I mentioned earlier that this could stay south of Arkansas.  That's just one possibility, it still could come further north.

8 PM Saturday Update... Don't get your hopes up for the second system.  There's a chance that one goes so far south that Arkansas gets nothing.

Here we go again with another "Arkansas Slushy".  A new area of low pressure will emerge from the southwest and interact with cold air from the north.  It always comes down to how much cold air will be in place as this next storm develops.  It's not the moisture that's in question with this one as everything points to quite a bit precipitation.  The further south you live, it will more than likely be a cold rain.

As I analyze the date this Saturday morning, it all shows a very sharp gradient between the snow and no.  As you can see on the maps below, only a few miles can make the difference between several inches and a dusting.  In other words, a forecast can go "bust" with the track of the low shifting in either direction.  A winter storm watch is already in effect for the northern two rows of counties.

Here's my thinking right now... central Arkansas could begin as a wintry mix early Monday morning, then turn to rain as readings go into the mid and upper 30s.  As the low passes by and cold air wraps into the system late Monday night, the rain could change to snow again.  This is the time frame for the best chance for accumulation in central Arkansas.  Up north, the majority of the event should stay snow/sleet.

If this all comes together, we'll do the snow picture contest and see  who can come up with the best snow sculpture!  I'll provide an email address if we go forward with that.  Also, depending on how this system develops, we will have another edition of "Arkansas Weather Live" Monday evening.  This could be fun especially if we are in the middle of the event.  By the way, I accidentally deleted the previous blog post "February Made Me Shiver With Every Forecast I Deliver".  I clicked my mouse one too many times.  Sorry about that.  We had just reached 100 comments as well.  According to some of those comments, many were discovering the blog and telling their friends about it... THANKS!  Please keep telling people about it.  This week will be fun with yet another system late in the week. 

10 AM Tuesday Update... I'm beginning to put together a new post and I have come up with a title.  Here's a hint... it's a line from the famous song by Don McLean.

10PM Monday Update... I was going to wait for more model consistency, but there's trouble lurking next week (Monday).  I'll start a new post Tuesday.

10 AM Monday Update... I want to tell you what I saw on my way home from work last night.  The roads were dry in most areas, but in some places there were slick spots where runoff froze.  It wasn't widespread, but those icy patches were there.  I was passed on the interstate by people going 70-80 mph.  I came upon one accident on I-630 last night where a car hit a slick spot and smashed into the concrete barrier in the middle of the interstate.  The front end of the car was gone.  I hope that driver was okay.  A few miles down the road, I was going through the intersection of Chenal and Markham.  A van in front of me was speeding down the road and hit a slick spot.  I saw the van spin in circles out of control, hit the curb on the right side of the road, then FLEW in the air and landed upright in the Target parking lot.  The driver got out and looked around his van so I assumed he was fine.  I saw more accidents yesterday when the roads were much better than when they were completely covered with ice.

8 PM Sunday Update... Here's an update to the snow contest.  The National Weather Service counts sleet as snow!  Whether you agree with that or not, there's no way of separating the two.  Therefore, we have a season total of 1.5 inches at the Little Rock airport.  This means "WeatherFanatic" is winning with his guess of 1.3 inches.  He shouldn't get too comfortable, there's still plenty of winter.

11 AM Sunday Update... The visible satellite imagery is very interesting this morning.  You can clearly see the snow cover from space.  You will also be able to clearly identify some of the rivers in eastern and northeastern Arkansas including the White River.  Low clouds and fog encompass portions of the state into Oklahoma.  As that burns off soon, you will have an even better idea where the heaviest snow fell.  The image is below.

We analyze model data way too much when we should just trust our instincts and look at the actual weather.  We knew the arctic high was strong and would funnel its cold air in from the northeast, directly down that 67/167 corridor.  It was stronger and faster than we expected, but not by much.  Apparently the air aloft was not as warm as the models predicted as the initial moisture begin to move into the state.  This is why sleet was the predominate precipitation type in the metro.  The area of freezing rain was a bit further south where many lost power.  As we thought, when we woke up Friday morning, driving conditions would be ok, but rapidly deteriorate by the afternoon.  We had a couple waves of moderate to heavy sleet in central Arkansas and that translated to heavy snow where the cold air was deep enough in northern Arkansas.  The upper low crossed the state Friday evening and its track brought a few inches to the north with only a dusting to 1/2 inch in the metro.  Official totals from the National Weather Service indicates 1.2 inches of snow and sleet in North Little Rock ( bad news WeatherNinja ) and 1.5 inches of snow/ice at Little Rock Adams Field.  Below is a map with total snow/ice accumulations.  It's not perfect, but it gives you a good idea as to what happened.  Take a look at it and compare it to the models in the previous blog post.

As far as the blog is concerned, it has exceeded all of my expectations.  I know I say it often, but, THANKS!  The live video streaming was put to good use this past week and it was fun to do.  I think having Joe Bastardi and John Robinson really helped launch this into the stratosphere.   We are lucky to have many knowledgeable people who contribute.  I want to keep it fun and informative.  When I woke up Friday morning, I didn't intend to stream out of my home office, but threw it on the blog with the ustream chat.  I couldn't believe we had so many watch without any notice.  Also, we set a record for blog comments.  Take a look the last post, 220!

I don't see any significant chances for snow in the near term, but I am confident winter isn't over in Arkansas.  There is a system coming through late this week, but moisture looks suppressed to the south and cold air is lacking.  I'll watch it though.

I finally got what I wanted this winter, my sons first true snow.  It wasn't much, but it counts.  I included a picture we took Saturday morning.  The outfit is from a friend in Tennessee.  I know when he looks back at it when he's 16, it will embarrass him. LOL.  I kinda felt sorry for him.  Anyway, everyone stay warm and safe.  I'll start a new post soon about any future chances for any snow or ice.

CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY JANUARY 26TH SHOW OF "ARKANSAS WEATHER LIVE"